How the Government Shutdown Affects Your Military Benefits
The 2026 COLA announcement is likely to be delayed because of the ongoing government shutdown. Why does this matter to military members and their families? Because COLA information is key to adjusting the annual amount of certain military benefits and VA programs. The next year’s rates for BAH, BAS, and many other programs depend on data delayed by the federal government’s inability to fund itself.
How the Government Shutdown Affects Your Military Benefits
The key to the COLA calculation is the September Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W data) collected and released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), one of the federal agencies forced to suspend its operations due to the lack of a federal budget.
Without this crucial information, the SSA cannot finalize the COLA calculation and make the official announcement.
Importance of the Cost-of-Living Adjustment
The Social Security Administration (SSA) typically announces the COLA in mid-October. As mentioned above, the adjustment is a vital feature of government benefits programs such as Social Security, as it helps benefits keep pace with inflation.
Millions of Americans rely on Social Security as their primary source of income, and in that context, COLA is not just a number. Without it, the purchasing power of Social Security benefits erodes over time. That would create a situation where it is difficult for beneficiaries to make ends meet as inflation continues.
How Long is the Delay?
The length of the delay in the COLA announcement is directly tied to the duration of the government shutdown. Once a funding agreement is reached and the government reopens, the BLS will need time to process the backlog of economic data and release the delayed reports. Only then will the SSA be able to calculate and announce the 2026 COLA.
Shutdown Uncertainty
While it won’t affect the distribution of Social Security payments, the delay in the COLA announcement causes problems for fixed-income retirees and others who need to know whether their income will increase in 2026.
This is not the first time that a government shutdown has delayed the COLA announcement. In October 2013, a 16-day government shutdown also led to a delay in the release of the September inflation data.
However, once the government reopened and the data was released, the COLA was calculated and the increase was applied to benefits as scheduled in January of the following year.
What to Expect for the 2026 COLA Announcement
Based on the available inflation data from July and August, economists and advocacy groups have made projections about the size of the 2026 COLA.
The Senior Citizens League, a non-partisan senior advocacy group, has estimated that the 2026 COLA will be around 2.7%. This would result in an increase of approximately $54 per month for the average retired worker.
While this gives an idea of what to expect, nothing is final until the September CPI-W data is released. The delay in the announcement means that beneficiaries must wait longer to know the exact amount of their benefit increase for 2026. How long depends on the ability of the federal government to do the basic job of keeping the lights on and government programs paid for.
About the author
Editor-in-Chief Joe Wallace is a 13-year veteran of the United States Air Force and a former reporter/editor for Air Force Television News and the Pentagon Channel. His freelance work includes contract work for Motorola, VALoans.com, and Credit Karma. He is co-founder of Dim Art House in Springfield, Illinois, and spends his non-writing time as an abstract painter, independent publisher, and occasional filmmaker.
